The "Bipasha" factor

Counting has begun in six states. Strangely, looks like Congress has not been hit as badly due to 26/11 at Mumbai. Congress leading in Delhi (an urban stronghold), Rajasthan and Mizoram.

"Experts" on CNN-IBN are attributing it to the "Bipasha" factor. I had a tough time figuring out what this factor really means. Was Bipasha Basu campaigning for the Congress? Was Bipasha the name of the daughter of some politician, and was campaigning vigorously for the Congress?

Now I find that the "Bipasha" factor is the "Bijli, Pani and Sadak" factor. The electricity, water and roads factor. Congress has delivered Bipasha in Delhi, and seems to be making a strong comeback.

Free hugs Mumbai

Bravo Vinit Mehta. Take a bow.

We will get through this, as long as have this spirit within us.

A Mahatma

This is unprecedented. India is seeing the beginnings of a people's movement, like it has not seen in the recent past.

Two years ago, the reservation furore was turning into a major students movement, but stopped short of transcending students and moving on to become a full-fledged people's movement.

This time, India is shocked. No-one in the country wants to sit and watch. We are tired of our political establishment, and we want change. The whole country is outraged. Riveting speeches from public personalities, stunned silence from intellectuals, and angst from students and the youth: this is what the last few days have seen.

Yet, I know it will die down. Life will go on as usual. Why do I feel so?

A great movement needs a great leader. Independence had the Mahatma. He will not be back, but do we have anyone who has the moral rectitude to stand up and declare that they will be the people's voice in this movement?

Never mind Bapu. Do we have one Kripalani, one Vinoda Bhave or one Jaiprakash Narayan who can take these emotions and turn it into a revolution?

I do not believe that we have even one leader who has the courage and strength to change our democracy. Intellectual voices like Arun Shourie and Jairam Ramesh don't have the mass appeal to connect with the millions. Mass leaders like Narendra Modi, Mayawati and Nitish Kumar, while good leaders in their own right, are not driven by a fervent sense of patriotism and national gain. Further, intellectual voices like MS Swaminathan and Abdul Kalam do not have the faintest idea what politics is all about.

Unfortunately, the last standing great politician of moral standing died before this episode subsided: VP Singh.

It's sad. Just knowing that this too shall pass, is quite a painful thought.

We all know of our courageous army and a few choice civil servants who are still driven by a need to do public good. The army can even give its life for the country. But they still do not give us that one leader who can change India as we know it. One man, who needs both political acumen and a sense of social justice. Not motivated by the greed of money or power, but just motivated by a vision: to see an India where every Indian is safe, and every successive government works only for the benefit of the people. As Arun Shourie says, "we cannot have a flabby State, a somnolent society and a super-efficient anti-terrorist operation." The malaise is deep-set, and only a revolution can bring about change.

The stage is set. The podium is ready. But where is that Mahatma?

Operation Tactical failure?

Operation Cyclone, Operation Black Tornado: These were the fancy names given to the commando operations during the Mumbai massacre.

Of course, we all admit that our commandos and police officers are extremely brave, and have done great service to the nation. I am just questioning the tactics employed.

1. Why was ATS chief Karkare killed? While our media channels are going ga-ga over his great sacrifice to the nation, I am not sure that the chief of ATS should venture into the line of terror without adequate calculation. I am not sure he was going for a flushing operation. It seems more like a preliminary inspection operation. In this case, it seems like a surveillance failure, and the police was not aware of the exact position of the terrorists. The ATS chief was a 82 batch IPS officer. His death would affect the morale of the entire operation, and certainly the morale of the ATS team on site

2. Why were communication lines not opened with the terrorists? Why did we try to storm into all the buildings at the same time, without giving enough time for conversation with terrorists? In a hostage situation, the terrorist would immediately try to kill the hostages before dying. This is exactly what happened

3. If we were indeed storming the buildings, why did this operation take a full three days? All gunpoint-hostages across the three locations have all died (with rare exceptions). The only survivors are those who were locked up inside their rooms

4. How can one hurt terrorist at the Taj, without any hostages, keep off a hundred commandos for over a day?

5. Why was no official spokesperson appointed, who could give hourly factual updates to the media about the happenings inside? Why were they giving place to such rampant speculation?

6. Why was media not cordoned off? Why were they allowed to get so close to the scene of the attacks?

These are just a few unanswered questions about the tactics employed. Of course, we have some very fine officers on duty, and I give them full credit for the operation. I could never even do a fraction of what was finally done. I am just looking for some lessons. Could we have done this better?

Dream team 2009

Prime Minister - LK Advani
Home Minister - Narendra Modi
External Affairs Minister - Jaswant Singh
Finance Minister - Arun Shourie

Blasts in Mumbai... again!

As I write this, five blasts have been reported in various parts of Mumbai, and iconic locations have been targeted this time. The attacks have been by blasts, firing, grenades, and so on. The Taj, at the gateway of India, has been attacked. Militants are holed up inside the Taj, and firing is taking place inside this hotel. The entire hotel is taken hostage, and a tense situation prevails. A fire burns at the lobby of the Trident hotel in Nariman point, Mumbai.

It is too early to say more. God help us.

On another note, this is uncharacteristically mature reporting by NDTV. Restrained, yet incisive.

Of JP

The great Jaiprakash Narayan died in October 1979. His great political adversary and former Prime Minister, Indhira Gandhi, wrote to a friend, describing him. I think the description is quite apt. She writes,

Poor old JP! What a confused mind he had leading to such a frustrated life! These twists and turns were because of his Gandhian hypocrisy, and the vow of celebacy extracted from him when he married the Mahatma's disciple Prabhavati. That, and jealousy of my father, probably conditioned the rest of his life.

It is nonsense to say that he did not want office. One part of him did, very much so. He was town between that and the desire to be regarded as a martyr and a saint

In post-independent history, only Indhira could accuse someone of frustration arising from sexual denial (celebacy). Maybe she was even right! But JP's life changed Indian democracy so fundamentally. In many ways, we are still facing the repercussions of the 18 month National emergency that India once faced in 1975.

Chidambaram on song

The left is claiming that because they opposed the brazen capitalism that the Congress was taking India towards in the last five years. Finance Minister Chidambaram was asked whether he would give credit to the left for saving the economy. He gave his usual over-smart smile and said, "As they say, even a broken clock shows the right time twice in a day".

Making the FIIs pay

This is brilliant. An excellent example of the Indian mind at work, against the world.

A huge debate has been on recently about how we are allowing the FIIs to play with the Indian stock market so ruthlessly. When they come in, the market goes up. When they retreat, the market collapses. Why do we let FIIs wreak havoc with our Indian markets.

Look at the dollar fluctuation. At its peak, it was trading at about 40 rupees to a dollar. This was bad for Indian exporters, but gave FIIs a poor deal, as they were entering in dollars and investing in the Indian markets.

Now, when the flight from the Indian markets began from May, rupee was still trading at 40 rupees. The graph is here. When they started withdrawing from the markets, RBI started hiking the exchange rate gradually, until it hit a peak of 50 to a dollar. So an FII investing at 40 would withdraw with only 75% of value directly, purely because of exchange rate. This ensured that certain FIIs stayed, as they didnt see value in withdrawing. Two weeks ago, they pumped in about $600 million to the Indian markets, and RBI pulled down the exchange rate. In the graph, this was around the starting of November. The market went up from 8000 to 10000.

When they tried to withdraw again, RBI pulled up the exchange rate again. Now we are trading at 50 to a dollar again. And the market stays grim, yet stable.