Every once in a while, even Sagarika Ghose happens to have a good guest on her show. One such guest remarked, very insightfully, that the Left has been playing the game of bluff with the Congress since they started their relationship. The left has been playing a very intelligent game of playing opposition from within the government. Hence, the BJP and the other opposition parties have been effectively marginalized. Whenever the government does anything good for the country, the left parties share the credit. Whenever anything even remotely suspicious takes place, they waste no time in threatening to pull out support. This has been going on for years now. Much like a game of bluff, they have been saying they would withdraw support every few months. By using this tactic, the left has become the most powerful political party in the country, and Prakash Karat, India's most powerful man.
The 123 nuclear deal is a Pranab Mukherjee special. The conditions of the deal are well spelt out by the prime minister's speech to the Lok Sabha, where he makes a few
interesting points. Clinically, he makes point by point rebuttals on the floor of the house. "Let history judge", he said emphatically, to the loud thumping of desks in the parliament. The opposition from within, the Left parties, staged a walkout and laid seige on the well of he house. Very soon, the Left said they would withdraw support if the deal went through. Now, like an experienced player, Manmohan Singh called their bluff. He went on record to tell the left to "take it or leave it". It was a wonderfully thought out tactic, but not handled well enough.
There are two ways to handle the left parties. One would have been to go internal and buy them out and convince them of the merits of 123. Another is to go on the offensive, and dare them to withdraw support. Herein lay the fallacy. The left did not anticipate the Congress to make such a statement. The left is in no position to go to the polls in its two traditional strongholds, West Bengal and Kerala. In both these places, they would have taken a heavy beating. They needed their place in the sun for the next two years, if only to wash away the sins of Nandigram.
So this move puts them in a spot. They are now dared to withdraw support. So they make a few volatile statements, and wait for the congress leadership to get tense. By Congress leadership, I mean a particular lady at 10, Janpath. Immediately, Manmohan Singh calls for a meeting with Budhadeb Bhattacharya. The old warlord, Pranab Mukherjee gets into the act, trying to use his Bengali connections in the Left. Despite their best efforts, the Left is going on an offensive now, because they have now committed to too far. They cannot risk being exposed, because for a communist party, that is a fate worse than death. A simple act of defiance to gain publicity had gone bad, and both parties were going to fight it out till the end. The Japanese Prime Minister visits India, and enquires about the volatile situation. The Prime Minister tells him that everything is under control, and the deal will go on as decided. It is a golden opportunity for India to gain energy security, and Manmohan Singh will not let it go. Negotiations move on, and Toshiba has now committed to provide equipment for nuclear reactors.
Like a game of war strategy, this is where we stand today. The left has burnt its bridges, and there is no going back. The Prime Minister has committed to something which he is unable to stand by, because of pressure from 10, Janpath. The way I see it is, one head does have to roll, because this partnership has reached boiling point.
There are two possibilities going forward: India could make certain modifications to 123, and get back to the drawing board with America. As far as America is concerned, however, the deal is signed, and we now need to sort out our internal affairs. So this is not an option.
The only other option is for someone to compromise. That could be Manmohan Singh. Much as I hate to say it, it is likely that Manmohan Singh might be forced to resign on this issue, just so that the Congress and the Left can still live.
Labels: congress, India, politics